MPC Decision Day: What 5 November Means for Your Mortgage

FINALIZE AFTER 5 NOV DECISION — outcome sections below are scenario drafts; replace with verified decision facts before publishing.

Why this decision matters

On Thursday 5 November 2026, at 12:00 UK time, the Bank of England announces its latest MPC decision alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report — and for the first time in over three years, a rate rise is genuinely on the table.

Bank Rate has been on hold at 3.75% since December 2025. At its September meeting the Committee voted 6–3 to hold, with three members already backing a rise to 4%. Then the ONS reported on 21 October that CPI had climbed to 3.5% in the year to September — the highest since October 2025, with motor fuels the largest upward contributor. A Reuters poll of economists (12–14 October) found 54 of 63 expecting a quarter-point rise to 4% on Thursday.

Markets have already moved. Moneyfacts reported on 30 October that average fixed mortgage rates have breached 6% for the first time in three years — 5.99% for a five-year fix, 5.97% for two years — while the 30-year gilt yield topped 6% in early October, its highest since 1998 (LSEG). The OBR says mortgage payments are on course for their highest share of household income since 2009.

Borrowing is already getting more expensive. Thursday decides whether the Bank adds to that — or presses pause.

What we know now

• Bank Rate: 3.75%, unchanged since December 2025. A rise to 4% would be the first increase in over three years.
• Fixed rates near 6%: average five-year fix 5.99%, two-year fix 5.97% (Moneyfacts, 30 October 2026).
• Bond markets strained: 30-year gilt yield above 6% in early October — highest since 1998 (LSEG).
• Expectations lean toward a rise: 54 of 63 economists in a Reuters poll (12–14 October 2026) expect a quarter-point increase.
• Housing market cooling: annual house price growth slowed to +0.5% in October, the weakest since January 2024, with the average UK home at £273,566 (Nationwide, 30 October 2026).
• Borrowing activity soft: 53,443 mortgage approvals in September — the lowest since December 2023 — with net lending of £3.866bn (Bank of England, 29 October 2026).

Key point: your mortgage type decides how a decision reaches you. Trackers and variable rates follow Bank Rate directly; fixed deals are priced off swap rates and gilt yields — which is why fixes have already climbed toward 6% while Bank Rate has not moved.

If Bank Rate rises to 4% — scenario, not a prediction

Scenario only — replace with the verified decision once announced on 5 November. The following assumes a quarter-point rise. It is not a forecast.

• Tracker mortgages would rise with Bank Rate, typically within days or weeks depending on your lender’s terms.
• Standard variable rates typically move with Bank Rate too — but each lender sets its own SVR, so check your lender’s announcement.
• Fixed deals would not change directly, but lenders may reprice new deals if swap rates and gilt yields rise further. With average fixes at 5.99%/5.97%, a rise could entrench them there or push them higher.
• The signal matters as much as the number. This would be the first increase in over three years — a clear turn in the rate cycle that lenders would bake into new-deal pricing.

If your fixed deal ends soon, discuss locking in with a broker — but much of the expectation is already priced in.

If Bank Rate holds at 3.75% — scenario, not a prediction

Scenario only — replace with the verified decision once announced on 5 November. The following assumes no change. It is not a forecast.

• Tracker and variable payments would stay where they are. No immediate change to your monthly bill.
• Fixed rates could still move either way — they track swap rates and gilt yields, not Bank Rate. A hold could ease yields if read as growth weakness, or push them higher if read as the Bank losing its grip on inflation.
• Why the Bank might hold: with approvals at their lowest since December 2023 and price growth at its weakest since January 2024, the Committee may judge no further squeeze is needed.
• A hold would not bring fixed rates back down. Average fixes sit near 6% because of bond-market funding costs, not because of Bank Rate.

Either way, the OBR warning stands: mortgage payments are heading for their highest share of household income since 2009.

What to do either way

The same practical steps apply whatever the MPC decides:

• Check your deal end date. If your fixed deal ends in the next six months, Thursday matters most to you — find the exact date on your annual statement or your lender’s app.
• Speak to a broker 3–6 months before your deal ends — they can secure a rate you can switch to later and advise whether waiting or locking in suits you.
• Model your payments at today’s rates with our mortgage overpayment calculator — see what your bill looks like near 6%, and what even a small overpayment could save you.
• Thinking of moving? Check affordability first with our affordability calculator — lenders are stress-testing harder as rates rise.
• First-time buyer? Our UK Home Buyer Toolkit walks you through deposits, fees and the buying process step by step.
• Avoid new borrowing you do not need until the picture settles — credit card and loan rates tend to follow the general direction of travel.
• Do not make Thursday a panic deadline — fixed rates move on bond markets, not a single announcement.

This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Speak to a qualified mortgage adviser about your own situation.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the MPC decision announced?

The Bank publishes its decision at 12:00 UK time on Thursday 5 November 2026, with the minutes, vote split and Monetary Policy Report; the Governor’s press conference follows at around 12:30. We will update this article once announced — the rise/hold sections above are scenarios until then.

I am on a fixed-rate mortgage. Will Thursday change my payments?

No — not directly. Your rate and payment are locked until your deal ends. What Thursday can influence is the rate you are offered when you next remortgage — so if your deal ends within six months, start the broker conversation early.

Should I remortgage before 5 November?

No single answer — and Thursday alone should not force your hand. Fixed rates are priced off swap rates and gilt yields, which have already pushed average fixes to 5.99%/5.97% (Moneyfacts, 30 October), not directly off Bank Rate. If your deal ends soon, speak to a broker 3–6 months ahead and model your options at current rates.