If your fixed deal is ending soon, the numbers have turned against waiting. According to Moneyfacts, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate reached 5.98% on 5 October and the average five-year fix hit 6.00% — both around their highest levels in three years. Worse, the cheap end of the market has nearly vanished: fixed deals priced under 5% collapsed from 1,494 at the start of September to just nine. So should you fix now, or hold on and hope? Here is what the data says, and what it costs either way.
Why Rates Have Jumped
Mortgage pricing follows the money markets more than the Bank of England’s headline rate. The five-year swap rate — the wholesale cost lenders base fixed deals on — has climbed from around 3.5% in late February to about 4.7%, driven by the war in the Middle East, oil prices and inflation stuck at 3.1%. The Bank has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, but its next decision falls on 5 November, and markets are now pricing in a possible rise to 4.0%. That is why lenders have been pulling cheap fixes rather than launching new ones.
There is one small mercy: by mid-October the averages had stopped climbing, with the two-year fix at 5.96% and the five-year at 5.99% (16 October), and a handful of big lenders — NatWest, HSBC, Accord and Principality among them — trimmed selected rates. Stable is not the same as falling, but it does mean shopping around still pays.
What the Rise Costs in Real Money
Averages hide the pain. The table shows monthly payments on a 25-year repayment mortgage at 4.94% — where the average five-year fix sat in February — versus 6.00% today.
| Mortgage | At 4.94% | At 6.00% | Extra per month |
| £200,000 | £1,162 | £1,289 | £126 (£1,517 a year) |
| £250,000 | £1,453 | £1,611 | £158 (£1,896 a year) |
| £300,000 | £1,743 | £1,933 | £190 (£2,275 a year) |
Your own quote will depend heavily on your deposit or equity. Moneyfacts’ averages by loan-to-value (1 October) show a two-year fix at 5.42% for borrowers with a 40% deposit, but 6.37% at 95% LTV. And the best-buy end still exists for the best-placed borrowers: the cheapest widely available fixes were around 4.93% (two-year) and 4.98% (five-year) at 60% LTV in early October. The average is a warning, not a quote — run your own figures through our Affordability Calculator before deciding anything.
The Most Expensive Option: Doing Nothing
If your fix ends and you drift onto your lender’s standard variable rate, the average SVR is now 7.13% — comfortably above every fix on the market. Whatever else you decide, decide before that happens.
The Case for Fixing Now
Certainty has rarely been worth more. Markets are pricing in rate rises, not cuts; the deals under 5% have already gone from plentiful to almost extinct; and a fix booked today can usually be held for months — many lenders let you reserve a rate up to six months before your current deal ends. Reserving is not marrying: if rates fall before you complete, a broker can usually move you to the better deal. If they rise, you have locked the cheaper one. For the growing number of borrowers coming off the ultra-cheap fixes of 2021, the Mortgage Overpayment Calculator also shows how even small overpayments can soften the jump.
The Case for Waiting — Honestly Stated
Waiting is a bet that the shock fades: if oil prices settle and inflation cools, swap rates could retreat and fixes would follow, just as they fell through 2024 and 2025. The mid-October stabilisation, and those small lender cuts, are the first hints lenders are competing again. A tracker is the middle path — no early repayment charges and you benefit if rates fall — but your payment can also rise within weeks, starting with the Bank’s 5 November decision. Waiting only works if you can afford to be wrong.
A Practical Playbook
Deal ending within six months? Reserve a fix now, then keep an eye on the market and switch if better deals appear before completion. Already on the SVR? Move — at 7.13% average, delay costs real money every month. Buying your first home? A smaller deposit means a pricier rate (6.37% average at 95% LTV), so test affordability at today’s rates, not February’s, and compare the total cost of waiting to save a bigger deposit against buying sooner — our Rent vs Buy Calculator helps with exactly that trade-off.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will mortgage rates fall in 2027?
Nobody knows — and right now markets are pricing in the opposite, with a possible Bank Rate rise on 5 November and further rises expected through 2027. Rates would likely fall only if inflation cools enough for the Bank to cut. Plan on today’s numbers, treat any fall as a bonus.
Should I choose a two-year or five-year fix?
Unusually, it currently costs almost nothing extra to fix for longer: the averages are 5.98% (two-year) and 6.00% (five-year). Five years buys certainty through whatever comes next; two years keeps you flexible if you expect rates to be lower by 2028 — or if you may move home soon.
Can I lock in a mortgage rate now for a deal that starts later?
Yes, with many lenders. Mortgage offers are commonly valid for up to six months, so you can reserve today’s rate ahead of your current deal ending — and often switch to a better deal before completion if one appears.
The Bottom Line
The era of picking up a sub-5% fix without trying is over for now. If your deal ends within six months, the evidence favours reserving a rate today and keeping your options open, rather than gambling on a fall that markets currently do not expect. Whatever you choose, do not drift onto the SVR — at 7.13%, inaction is the priciest decision of all. This article is general information, not financial advice; a mortgage broker can check the deals your own circumstances qualify for.
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