At first glance, the latest Rightmove house price index looks like reasonable news for the property market. Asking prices climbed 1.0% in October, and the average price tag on a British home now stands at £371,015.
Look a little closer, though, and a very different story emerges. This October’s rise is weaker than the seasonal norm, mortgage rates are climbing at speed, sales are running behind last year’s pace — and buyers, it seems, are sitting on their hands waiting to see what happens next.
Here is what the data, reported by Reuters, really tells us — and what it means for you, whether you’re buying or selling.
October’s numbers at a glance
Rightmove’s index tracks asking prices on homes put up for sale between 13 September and 10 October. The headline figures:
- Asking prices rose 1.0% month-on-month, up from 0.7% the month before — but below the 1.3% average October increase. The survey is not seasonally adjusted, and asking prices almost always rise in October, so coming in below the seasonal average is a soft result dressed up as a strong one.
- The average asking price is now £371,015, a jump of £3,575 in a single month.
- Prices are 0.1% lower than a year ago — an improvement on September’s 0.8% annual fall, but still in negative territory.
- The average two-year fixed mortgage rate has reached 5.55%, up from 5.29% a month earlier and 4.25% back in February, before the Iran war began.
In short: prices are edging up on paper, but the momentum is weaker than a normal autumn — and borrowing costs are moving firmly in the wrong direction.
The real story: mortgage rates are biting
The most important number in this month’s index isn’t a price at all — it’s that 5.55% mortgage rate. Two-year fixed deals have shot up in a matter of months, and the average five-year fix touched 6% on 5 October, the first time in around three years.
“It’s an early sign that higher mortgage costs are putting pressure on affordability even in markets with lower property prices, affecting the areas and types of property that buyers can afford.”
— Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove
That last point is the crucial one. When rates rise this quickly, the squeeze doesn’t just hit London and the South East. It reaches the cheaper markets that had been holding up best — because affordability is about monthly payments, not the number on the estate agent’s board.
To put it in concrete terms: on a £250,000 mortgage over 25 years, the difference between 4.25% and 5.55% is close to £190 a month. That’s money straight out of a buyer’s budget — enough to knock some purchasers out of the market altogether, or force them towards smaller homes in cheaper areas.
First-time buyers with small deposits feel it most, since they borrow the largest share of the purchase price. But existing homeowners coming off cheap fixed deals are facing payment shocks too.
What it means if you’re buying
If you’re house-hunting right now, the market is sending mixed signals — and that can work in your favour, provided you go in with your eyes open:
- You have more choice than in years. The number of homes available for sale is at its highest level for this time of year since 2014. More stock means less competition from other buyers and far more room to negotiate on price.
- Sellers are getting realistic. Rightmove found that new sellers in more affordable — and previously resilient — areas are deliberately setting lower asking prices to offset the affordability squeeze. The days of testing the market with an ambitious price are fading.
- Stress-test your budget. With two-year fixes at 5.55% and no guarantee rates have peaked, never plan around the cheapest deal you see today. Our free affordability calculator shows what you could realistically borrow and what it would cost you each month.
- It’s fine to wait. Sales agreed are 8% below last year’s level, and plenty of buyers are pausing ahead of the Budget on 28 October — finance minister John Healey’s first — and for more detail on the promised First Home Scheme. If you’re torn between buying now and renting a while longer, our rent vs buy calculator will lay out the true cost of each option.
The buyers who thrive in this market won’t be the ones who stretch the furthest — they’ll be the ones who know exactly what they can afford and refuse to be rushed.
What it means if you’re selling
For sellers, October’s data carries a blunt message: price it right from day one, or risk being left on the shelf.
With the widest choice of homes for buyers in over a decade, overpriced properties are simply being scrolled past — sales agreed are already 8% down on last year. The sellers who are finding buyers are the ones who have read the room: vendors in affordable areas are setting lower asking prices that reflect what buyers can genuinely pay at today’s mortgage rates.
The old autumn playbook — list high and wait for a bidding war — doesn’t fit this market. An asking price anchored to what buyers could afford six months ago is anchored to a market that no longer exists. In a high-stock, high-rate environment, a realistic launch price that attracts competing interest will almost always beat an optimistic one that sits unsold.
If you’re also buying onwards, remember the same logic applies in reverse: what you lose on the sale, you may more than recover on the purchase.
The bigger picture
Rightmove’s asking-price figures are only one lens on the market, and the lender indices paint a similarly subdued picture:
- Nationwide reported annual house price growth halving to 0.8% in September, with the average UK home at £274,251.
- Lloyds (the rebranded Halifax index) recorded no movement at all — prices flat on both the month and the year at £298,441.
- The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, although three of its nine policymakers voted for a rise — a clear signal that borrowing costs may not have peaked yet.
Put it all together and the story is consistent: a market treading water, with prices neither collapsing nor climbing, while rising mortgage rates quietly shrink what buyers can afford each month.
Don’t guess — run the numbers
In a market like this one, the buyers and sellers who come out best are those who deal in real figures rather than headlines. Before you make your next move:
- Check what you can genuinely afford with our affordability calculator
- Compare buying now against renting a little longer with the rent vs buy calculator
- See how overpaying could take the sting out of higher rates with the mortgage overpayment calculator
October’s headline says asking prices are up £3,575. The fine print says affordability is under real pressure. Make sure your plans are built on the fine print.
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