On Wednesday 28 October 2026, Chancellor John Healey will deliver the Autumn Budget — the first of the new government. Between now and then, expect a storm of headlines about tax rises, property levies and giveaways.
But if you are trying to buy a home, the question is simpler than the noise suggests: what actually changes for you — and what can you sensibly do about it this month? This guide separates what is confirmed from what is speculation, and finishes with a practical checklist.
Why this Budget matters for buyers
The housing market is already in a holding pattern. Nationwide’s September figures showed annual house price growth halving to just 0.8%, with the average UK home at £274,251. The Lloyds index recorded no change at all — 0.0% on both the month and the year, with an average price of £298,441.
Borrowing costs, meanwhile, have climbed sharply. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate now sits at 5.55%, up from 4.25% in February, and the average five-year fix touched 6% on 5 October. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, but three of its nine policymakers voted for a rise — a sign that rates may not fall as quickly as borrowers once hoped.
Rightmove’s October data found buyers growing cautious ahead of the Budget, with some first-time buyers holding off until there is more detail on the government’s First Home Scheme. Sales agreed were 8% below last year’s level, while the number of homes for sale hit its highest for this time of year since 2014.
In short: buyers have more choice and more negotiating power than they have had in a decade — but they are waiting for clarity. The Budget could provide it.
Four things to watch on 28 October
1. Mortgage rates and the cost of borrowing
The Chancellor does not set mortgage rates, but the Budget can move them. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts, published alongside the Budget, shape expectations for inflation and interest rates — and lenders price fixed-rate deals off those expectations.
A credible, steady Budget could help calm markets and support a gradual easing in fixed deals over the coming months. A Budget that spooks bond markets, on the other hand, could keep mortgage rates higher for longer. Watch the market reaction in the days after 28 October, not just the speech itself — that is what your lender is watching too.
2. First-time buyer support
This is the area to watch most closely if you are buying your first home. A new “Your First Home” equity loan scheme is expected to be confirmed, with the detail to follow on Budget day — and Rightmove reports that some first-time buyers are already waiting for that detail before they commit.
Until the fine print lands, treat everything as provisional: eligibility rules, regional caps and start dates could all matter more than the headline. Do not plan a purchase around a scheme that has not been confirmed — but do be ready to move quickly if the detail works in your favour.
3. Property taxes: stamp duty
Here, unusually, there is certainty. The Prime Minister has ruled out changes to stamp duty in this Budget, confirming it on 27 July. The stamp duty (SDLT) bands for England and Northern Ireland that have applied since 1 April 2025 will stand — so buyers can budget this cost with confidence rather than guessing.
Longer-term reform of property taxes remains a talking point in Westminster, but for this Budget it is firmly in the speculation column. If you are buying in England or Northern Ireland, you can calculate your stamp duty bill today using the stamp duty calculator in our free UK Home Buyers Toolkit — and know the figure will not be ambushed on 28 October.
4. Housing supply
Anything the Budget does to speed up housebuilding matters to buyers, even if the effects take years to feed through. More homes for sale means more choice and less pressure to overpay — and with stock at its highest October level since 2014, buyers already hold unusually strong cards.
Watch for planning reform funding, support for small builders, or measures aimed at bringing empty homes back into use. None of these will change prices overnight, but together they shape the market you will be buying into next year.
What you can do right now: a buyer’s checklist
You cannot control the Budget. You can control your own preparation — and October is a good month to get your finances match-fit. Work through this checklist before 28 October:
- Know your true borrowing power. With rates higher than they were in February, the amount you can borrow may have shifted. Work out how much you can borrow at today’s rates before you fall in love with a listing.
- Budget the full cost of moving. Stamp duty is settled, so price it in precisely — then add solicitor fees, surveys and removals. Our free toolkit covers the stamp duty maths.
- Give your deposit a deadline. If you are still saving, a month-by-month plan beats vague intentions. Our deposit savings planner shows exactly when you will hit your target at your current saving rate.
- Stress-test your mortgage. Could you still afford the payments if rates stayed higher for longer? And if you already have a mortgage, see what overpaying a little each month could save you in interest.
- Don’t pause a good purchase for a rumour. If the numbers work today and the home is right, waiting for Budget-day headlines is rarely the winning move — especially with so much choice on the market.
The bottom line
The Autumn Budget on 28 October could set the tone for borrowing costs, first-time buyer support and the wider market into 2027. But most of what is being shouted about is speculation — the confirmed facts are that stamp duty is not changing, first-time buyer help is on the way in some form, and buyers currently enjoy the widest choice of homes in over a decade.
Cut through the noise by focusing on what you can control: your budget, your deposit plan and your numbers. Run them through our free calculators — affordability, stamp duty, deposit planning and overpayments — and whatever the Chancellor announces, you will be ready.
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